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Scott Gregory v Chris Bhatt (Tue 02 Mar 2010)

Match won by Chris Bhatt. Result: 6-15,13-15,16-14,13-15.

Starting level for Scott Gregory: 1,513, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Bhatt: 1,708, level confidence: 60%.
Chris Bhatt to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Scott Gregory.

Chris Bhatt won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Bhatt played 24% better than Scott Gregory in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Bhatt actually played at a level of 1,792 and Scott Gregory at a level of 1,442. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Bhatt changes to +4.6% and Scott Gregory changes to -3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Bhatt becomes +3.1% and for Scott Gregory becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Chris Bhatt is +2.3% and for Scott Gregory is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Bhatt: 77%, Scott Gregory: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Bhatt: 74%, Scott Gregory: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Scott Gregory: 1,478, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Chris Bhatt: 1,745, level confidence: 74%.