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Kevin Ralfe v Tom Brady (Tue 02 Mar 2010)

Match won by Kevin Ralfe. Result: 15-8,15-4,15-2.

Starting level for Kevin Ralfe: 1,343, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Brady: 951, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Kevin Ralfe to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Tom Brady.

Kevin Ralfe won all of the games and 76% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 221% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Kevin Ralfe played 221% better than Tom Brady in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Kevin Ralfe actually played at a level of 2,026 and Tom Brady at a level of 630. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 51% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 41% and 41% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Kevin Ralfe changes to +40% and Tom Brady changes to -41%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Kevin Ralfe becomes +17.8% and for Tom Brady becomes -21%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Kevin Ralfe is +13% and for Tom Brady is -15%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Kevin Ralfe is limited to +10% and Tom Brady is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Kevin Ralfe: 88%, Tom Brady: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Kevin Ralfe: 58%, Tom Brady: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Kevin Ralfe: 1,475, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Tom Brady: 904, level confidence: 57%.