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Jan Brynjolffssen v Anthony Clifford (Wed 30 May 2012)

Match won by Jan Brynjolffssen. Result: 15-7,15-8,16-14.

Starting level for Jan Brynjolffssen: 1,641, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Anthony Clifford: 1,284, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Jan Brynjolffssen to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Anthony Clifford.

Jan Brynjolffssen won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Brynjolffssen played 57% better than Anthony Clifford in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jan Brynjolffssen actually played at a level of 1,821 and Anthony Clifford at a level of 1,157. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.7% and 9.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Brynjolffssen changes to +9.7% and Anthony Clifford changes to -8.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Brynjolffssen becomes +5.1% and for Anthony Clifford becomes -5.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Jan Brynjolffssen is +3.3% and for Anthony Clifford is -3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Brynjolffssen: 80%, Anthony Clifford: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Brynjolffssen: 72%, Anthony Clifford: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jan Brynjolffssen: 1,693, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Anthony Clifford: 1,242, level confidence: 78%.