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Jim Hilton v Mike Richards (Thu 31 May 2012)

Match won by Jim Hilton. Result: 15-10,10-15,15-9,15-13.

Starting level for Jim Hilton: 2,706, level confidence: 40%.
Starting level for Mike Richards: 2,102, level confidence: 57%.
Jim Hilton to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Mike Richards.

Jim Hilton won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jim Hilton played 22% better than Mike Richards in this match.

As Jim Hilton has played below his allowed range at 2,574, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Jim Hilton would normally have been playing at level 2,650 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Richards played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jim Hilton changes to 0% and Mike Richards changes to +0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jim Hilton becomes -0% and for Mike Richards becomes +0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Jim Hilton is 0% and for Mike Richards is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jim Hilton: 63%, Mike Richards: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jim Hilton: 62%, Mike Richards: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jim Hilton: 2,701, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Mike Richards: 2,108, level confidence: 73%.