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Jonathan Fuller v Paul Scott-Stevens (Thu 31 May 2012)

Match won by Jonathan Fuller. Result: 15-9,15-6,15-6.

Starting level for Jonathan Fuller: 3,187, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 1,883, level confidence: 60%.
Jonathan Fuller to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Paul Scott-Stevens.

Jonathan Fuller won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonathan Fuller played 114% better than Paul Scott-Stevens in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jonathan Fuller actually played at a level of 3,586 and Paul Scott-Stevens at a level of 1,673. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.5% and 9.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonathan Fuller changes to +8.2% and Paul Scott-Stevens changes to -9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonathan Fuller becomes +3.7% and for Paul Scott-Stevens becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Jonathan Fuller is +2.4% and for Paul Scott-Stevens is -3.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonathan Fuller: 83%, Paul Scott-Stevens: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonathan Fuller: 74%, Paul Scott-Stevens: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jonathan Fuller: 3,258, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 1,823, level confidence: 69%.