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James Morris v Alan Tierney (Tue 02 Mar 2010)

Match won by James Morris. Result: 15-11,10-15,17-15,15-9.

Starting level for James Morris: 1,445, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alan Tierney: 1,513, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Alan Tierney to win as he is currently playing 5% better than James Morris.

James Morris won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Morris played 21% better than Alan Tierney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Morris actually played at a level of 1,629 and Alan Tierney at a level of 1,342. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Morris changes to +12% and Alan Tierney changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Morris becomes +6.3% and for Alan Tierney becomes -6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for James Morris is +4.8% and for Alan Tierney is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Morris: 86%, Alan Tierney: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Morris: 77%, Alan Tierney: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Morris: 1,512, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Alan Tierney: 1,442, level confidence: 75%.