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Craig Perry v Dave Rawlings (Tue 05 Jun 2012)

Match won by Craig Perry. Result: 15-11,15-12,12-15,17-15.

Starting level for Craig Perry: 1,499, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Dave Rawlings: 1,734, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Dave Rawlings to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Craig Perry.

Craig Perry won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Craig Perry played 20% better than Dave Rawlings in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Craig Perry actually played at a level of 1,770 and Dave Rawlings at a level of 1,469. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Craig Perry changes to +17% and Dave Rawlings changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Craig Perry becomes +8.1% and for Dave Rawlings becomes -7.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Craig Perry is +5.3% and for Dave Rawlings is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Craig Perry: 82%, Dave Rawlings: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Craig Perry: 69%, Dave Rawlings: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Craig Perry: 1,576, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Dave Rawlings: 1,655, level confidence: 72%.