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Lawrence Foster v Martin Nash (Tue 02 Mar 2010)

Match won by Martin Nash. Result: 13-15,6-15,12-15.

Starting level for Lawrence Foster: 1,445, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for Martin Nash: 1,671, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Martin Nash to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Lawrence Foster.

Martin Nash won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin Nash played 48% better than Lawrence Foster in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin Nash actually played at a level of 1,893 and Lawrence Foster at a level of 1,276. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin Nash changes to +6.7% and Lawrence Foster changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin Nash becomes +3.9% and for Lawrence Foster becomes -6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Martin Nash is +3% and for Lawrence Foster is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin Nash: 93%, Lawrence Foster: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin Nash: 82%, Lawrence Foster: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lawrence Foster: 1,377, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Martin Nash: 1,718, level confidence: 82%.