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Simon Maxen v Carl Noffki (Tue 02 Mar 2010)

Match won by Simon Maxen. Result: 15-13,15-10,15-8.

Starting level for Simon Maxen: 1,858, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Carl Noffki: 926, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Simon Maxen to win as he is currently playing 101% better than Carl Noffki.

Simon Maxen won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Maxen played 48% better than Carl Noffki in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Simon Maxen was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,376 and 1,858 without affecting his level.

As Simon Maxen has played below his allowed range at 1,375, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Simon Maxen would normally have been playing at level 1,626 (based on typical behaviour), Carl Noffki played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Maxen changes to 0% and Carl Noffki changes to +4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Maxen becomes -0% and for Carl Noffki becomes +3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Simon Maxen is 0% and for Carl Noffki is +2.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Maxen: 77%, Carl Noffki: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Maxen: 67%, Carl Noffki: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Maxen: 1,855, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Carl Noffki: 951, level confidence: 78%.