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Paul Green v Zephanie Curgenven (Tue 02 Mar 2010)

Match won by Zephanie Curgenven. Result: 16-14,14-16,15-11,5-15,12-15.

Starting level for Paul Green: 1,842, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Zephanie Curgenven: 1,805, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Paul Green to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Zephanie Curgenven.

Zephanie Curgenven won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zephanie Curgenven played 11% better than Paul Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zephanie Curgenven actually played at a level of 1,922 and Paul Green at a level of 1,730. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zephanie Curgenven changes to +6.4% and Paul Green changes to -5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zephanie Curgenven becomes +3.7% and for Paul Green becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Zephanie Curgenven is +2.8% and for Paul Green is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zephanie Curgenven: 88%, Paul Green: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zephanie Curgenven: 83%, Paul Green: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Green: 1,792, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Zephanie Curgenven: 1,853, level confidence: 83%.