Keeley Peacock v Nev Rimes (Wed 06 Jun 2012)
Match won by Keeley Peacock. Result: 14-16,15-7,17-15,15-13.
Starting level for
Keeley Peacock:
1,470, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Nev Rimes:
1,926, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Nev Rimes to win as he is currently playing
31% better than Keeley Peacock.
Keeley Peacock won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keeley Peacock played
23% better than Nev Rimes in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keeley Peacock actually played at a level of
1,868 and Nev Rimes at a level of
1,516. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keeley Peacock changes to +22% and Nev Rimes changes to -23%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keeley Peacock becomes +10.2% and for Nev Rimes becomes -9.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Keeley Peacock is +6.6% and for Nev Rimes is -6.1%.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nev Rimes is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keeley Peacock: 93%, Nev Rimes: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keeley Peacock: 73%, Nev Rimes: 71%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Keeley Peacock:
1,565, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Nev Rimes:
1,832, level confidence: 71%.