Raf Shergold v Stuart Kousoulou (Wed 06 Jun 2012)
Match won by Stuart Kousoulou. Result: 15-6,8-15,12-15,11-15.
Starting level for
Raf Shergold:
2,054, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for
Stuart Kousoulou:
2,118, level confidence: 64%.
Stuart Kousoulou to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Raf Shergold.
Stuart Kousoulou won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Kousoulou played
20% better than Raf Shergold in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Kousoulou actually played at a level of
2,288 and Raf Shergold at a level of
1,901. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Kousoulou changes to +1.2% and Raf Shergold changes to -7.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Kousoulou becomes +0.9% and for Raf Shergold becomes -4.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Stuart Kousoulou is +0.6% and for Raf Shergold is -2.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Kousoulou: 80%, Raf Shergold: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Kousoulou: 74%, Raf Shergold: 29%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Raf Shergold:
1,998, level confidence: 29%.
Final level for Stuart Kousoulou:
2,128, level confidence: 74%.