Tim Webster v Shola Bello (Wed 06 Jun 2012)
Match won by Shola Bello. Result: 14-16,14-16,15-11,15-8,13-15.
Starting level for
Tim Webster:
1,256, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for
Shola Bello:
1,419, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Shola Bello to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Tim Webster.
Shola Bello won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was worse by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shola Bello played
6% better than Tim Webster in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shola Bello actually played at a level of
1,373 and Tim Webster at a level of
1,298. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shola Bello changes to -3.1% and Tim Webster changes to +3.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shola Bello becomes -2.7% and for Tim Webster becomes +2.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Shola Bello is -1.7% and for Tim Webster is +1.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shola Bello: 85%, Tim Webster: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shola Bello: 82%, Tim Webster: 81%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tim Webster:
1,277, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Shola Bello:
1,393, level confidence: 82%.