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Steve Hambling v Nick Medcraft (Wed 03 Mar 2010)

Match won by Steve Hambling. Result: 15-8,15-5,15-11.

Starting level for Steve Hambling: 1,534, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Medcraft: 1,580, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Nick Medcraft to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Steve Hambling.

Steve Hambling won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Hambling played 88% better than Nick Medcraft in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Hambling actually played at a level of 2,132 and Nick Medcraft at a level of 1,137. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Hambling changes to +38% and Nick Medcraft changes to -35%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Hambling becomes +16.1% and for Nick Medcraft becomes -15%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Steve Hambling is +12% and for Nick Medcraft is -10.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Steve Hambling is limited to +10% and Nick Medcraft is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Hambling: 87%, Nick Medcraft: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Hambling: 62%, Nick Medcraft: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steve Hambling: 1,685, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Nick Medcraft: 1,503, level confidence: 65%.