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Jeff Hobden v Grant Kleiner (Wed 06 Jun 2012)

Match won by Jeff Hobden. Result: 15-9,11-15,15-9,11-15,15-8.

Starting level for Jeff Hobden: 1,780, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Grant Kleiner: 1,568, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Jeff Hobden to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Grant Kleiner.

Jeff Hobden won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeff Hobden played 12% better than Grant Kleiner in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jeff Hobden actually played at a level of 1,771 and Grant Kleiner at a level of 1,576. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden changes to -0.5% and Grant Kleiner changes to +0.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden becomes -0.4% and for Grant Kleiner becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Jeff Hobden is 0% and for Grant Kleiner is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeff Hobden: 89%, Grant Kleiner: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeff Hobden: 88%, Grant Kleiner: 90%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jeff Hobden: 1,773, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Grant Kleiner: 1,569, level confidence: 90%.