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Martin White v Martin Harding (Thu 07 Jun 2012)

Match won by Martin White. Result: 15-12,11-15,15-9,15-12.

Starting level for Martin White: 1,999, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Martin Harding: 2,283, level confidence: 55%.
Martin Harding to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Martin White.

Martin White won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin White played 22% better than Martin Harding in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin White actually played at a level of 2,362 and Martin Harding at a level of 1,932. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin White changes to +13% and Martin Harding changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin White becomes +5.9% and for Martin Harding becomes -7.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Martin White is +3.8% and for Martin Harding is -4.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin White: 86%, Martin Harding: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin White: 73%, Martin Harding: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin White: 2,072, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Martin Harding: 2,181, level confidence: 63%.