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Craig Perry v Alan Howell (Wed 03 Mar 2010)

Match won by Alan Howell. Result: 15-11,10-15,11-15,11-15.

Starting level for Craig Perry: 913, level confidence: 27%.
Starting level for Alan Howell: 1,481, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Alan Howell to win as he is currently playing 62% better than Craig Perry.

Alan Howell won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Howell played 23% better than Craig Perry in this match.

As Alan Howell has played below his allowed range at 1,196, his level reduction is 6.4% before damping. On the assumption that Alan Howell would normally have been playing at level 1,384 (based on typical behaviour), Craig Perry played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 8.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Howell changes to -1.6% and Craig Perry changes to +8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Howell becomes -1.3% and for Craig Perry becomes +5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Alan Howell is -1% and for Craig Perry is +4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Howell: 91%, Craig Perry: 52%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Howell: 79%, Craig Perry: 45%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Craig Perry: 951, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Alan Howell: 1,464, level confidence: 79%.