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Phil Power v Ian Taylor (Thu 07 Jun 2012)

Match won by Phil Power. Result: 15-2,15-10,15-13.

Starting level for Phil Power: 1,789, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Ian Taylor: 1,292, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Phil Power to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Ian Taylor.

Phil Power won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Power played 80% better than Ian Taylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Phil Power actually played at a level of 2,040 and Ian Taylor at a level of 1,133. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 12% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Power changes to +12% and Ian Taylor changes to -10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Power becomes +5.8% and for Ian Taylor becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Phil Power is +3.8% and for Ian Taylor is -4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Power: 81%, Ian Taylor: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Power: 71%, Ian Taylor: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Phil Power: 1,854, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Ian Taylor: 1,264, level confidence: 74%.