Mark Blake v Pete Burdett (Thu 07 Jun 2012)
Match won by Pete Burdett. Result: 15-12,12-15,6-15,15-10,12-15.
Starting level for
Mark Blake:
1,738, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Pete Burdett:
2,531, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Pete Burdett to win as he is currently playing
46% better than Mark Blake.
Pete Burdett won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pete Burdett played
10% better than Mark Blake in this match.
As Pete Burdett has played below his allowed range at 2,095, his level reduction is 9.1% before damping. On the assumption that Pete Burdett would normally have been playing at level 2,424 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Blake played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.5% and 10.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pete Burdett changes to -7.2% and Mark Blake changes to +10.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pete Burdett becomes -3.6% and for Mark Blake becomes +5.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Pete Burdett is -2.3% and for Mark Blake is +3.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pete Burdett: 85%, Mark Blake: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pete Burdett: 74%, Mark Blake: 73%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Mark Blake:
1,794, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Pete Burdett:
2,470, level confidence: 74%.