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Brad Whitbread v Charles Yerrell (Thu 07 Jun 2012)

Match won by Charles Yerrell. Result: 11-15,2-15,15-11,5-15.

Starting level for Brad Whitbread: 2,759, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Charles Yerrell: 3,095, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Charles Yerrell to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Brad Whitbread.

Charles Yerrell won 75% of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charles Yerrell played 40% better than Brad Whitbread in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charles Yerrell actually played at a level of 3,454 and Brad Whitbread at a level of 2,472. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charles Yerrell changes to +10.1% and Brad Whitbread changes to -10.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charles Yerrell becomes +4.3% and for Brad Whitbread becomes -4.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Charles Yerrell is +2.8% and for Brad Whitbread is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charles Yerrell: 87%, Brad Whitbread: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charles Yerrell: 78%, Brad Whitbread: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Brad Whitbread: 2,673, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Charles Yerrell: 3,177, level confidence: 78%.