Tom Walker v Neil Hitchins (Thu 04 Mar 2010)
Match won by Neil Hitchins. Result: 10-15,12-15,8-15.
Starting level for
Tom Walker:
5,647, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for
Neil Hitchins:
6,390, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Neil Hitchins to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Tom Walker.
Neil Hitchins won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Hitchins played
52% better than Tom Walker in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Hitchins actually played at a level of
7,397 and Tom Walker at a level of
4,878. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Hitchins changes to +9.6% and Tom Walker changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Hitchins becomes +3.4% and for Tom Walker becomes -4.9%.
Given Neil Hitchins's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.6% has been applied to his level change.
Given Tom Walker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.7% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Neil Hitchins is +2.4% and for Tom Walker is -3.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Hitchins: 87%, Tom Walker: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Hitchins: 76%, Tom Walker: 61%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tom Walker:
5,446, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Neil Hitchins:
6,535, level confidence: 76%.