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Will Gardner v Sammy Chambers (Thu 04 Mar 2010)

Match won by Sammy Chambers. Result: 16-18,11-15,9-15.

Starting level for Will Gardner: 2,998, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sammy Chambers: 4,696, level confidence: 52%.
Sammy Chambers to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Will Gardner.

Sammy Chambers won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sammy Chambers played 40% better than Will Gardner in this match.

In this case, Sammy Chambers played at level 4,318 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Sammy Chambers would normally have been playing at level 4,427 (based on typical behaviour), Will Gardner played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sammy Chambers changes to 0% and Will Gardner changes to +1.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sammy Chambers becomes 0% and for Will Gardner becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Sammy Chambers is 0% and for Will Gardner is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sammy Chambers: 72%, Will Gardner: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sammy Chambers: 68%, Will Gardner: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Will Gardner: 3,016, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Sammy Chambers: 4,689, level confidence: 68%.