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Nick Lavery v Phil Yerby (Thu 04 Mar 2010)

Match won by Nick Lavery. Result: 15-9,15-10,15-5.

Starting level for Nick Lavery: 2,556, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Phil Yerby: 2,335, level confidence: 55%.
Nick Lavery to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Phil Yerby.

Nick Lavery won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Lavery played 88% better than Phil Yerby in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Lavery actually played at a level of 3,345 and Phil Yerby at a level of 1,784. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Lavery changes to +18% and Phil Yerby changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Lavery becomes +7.2% and for Phil Yerby becomes -11.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Nick Lavery is +5.4% and for Phil Yerby is -8.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Phil Yerby is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Lavery: 94%, Phil Yerby: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Lavery: 72%, Phil Yerby: 56%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Lavery: 2,691, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Phil Yerby: 2,243, level confidence: 56%.