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James Paxman v Jeff Hobden (Thu 04 Mar 2010)

Match won by James Paxman. Result: 19-17,15-8,15-10.

Starting level for James Paxman: 2,119, level confidence: 44%.
Starting level for Jeff Hobden: 1,515, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
James Paxman to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Jeff Hobden.

James Paxman won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Paxman played 45% better than Jeff Hobden in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Paxman actually played at a level of 2,157 and Jeff Hobden at a level of 1,488. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 1.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Paxman changes to +1.5% and Jeff Hobden changes to -0.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Paxman becomes +1.1% and for Jeff Hobden becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for James Paxman is +0.9% and for Jeff Hobden is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Paxman: 66%, Jeff Hobden: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Paxman: 65%, Jeff Hobden: 89%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Paxman: 2,134, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Jeff Hobden: 1,505, level confidence: 89%.