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Nev Rimes v Tim Oram (Thu 04 Mar 2010)

Match won by Nev Rimes. Result: 15-6,16-14,9-15,15-5.

Starting level for Nev Rimes: 1,963, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Oram: 1,475, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Nev Rimes to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Tim Oram.

Nev Rimes won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nev Rimes played 29% better than Tim Oram in this match.

In this case, Nev Rimes played at level 1,908 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Tim Oram is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nev Rimes changes to 0% and Tim Oram changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nev Rimes becomes 0% and for Tim Oram becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Nev Rimes is 0% and for Tim Oram is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nev Rimes: 87%, Tim Oram: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nev Rimes: 85%, Tim Oram: 91%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nev Rimes: 1,960, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Tim Oram: 1,474, level confidence: 91%.