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Ian Blows v Howard Gregory (Thu 04 Mar 2010)

Match won by Howard Gregory. Result: 8-15,15-13,12-15,16-18.

Starting level for Ian Blows: 1,529, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Howard Gregory: 1,193, level confidence: 64%.
Ian Blows to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Howard Gregory.

Howard Gregory won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Howard Gregory played 23% better than Ian Blows in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Howard Gregory actually played at a level of 1,499 and Ian Blows at a level of 1,217. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Howard Gregory changes to +22% and Ian Blows changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Howard Gregory becomes +11.3% and for Ian Blows becomes -7.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Howard Gregory is +8.5% and for Ian Blows is -5.6%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ian Blows is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Howard Gregory: 80%, Ian Blows: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Howard Gregory: 64%, Ian Blows: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ian Blows: 1,454, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Howard Gregory: 1,293, level confidence: 64%.