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Tom Power v Obaid Safi (Thu 04 Mar 2010)

Match won by Obaid Safi. Result: 11-15,15-11,17-15,5-15,5-15.

Starting level for Tom Power: 8,798, level confidence: 36%.
Starting level for Obaid Safi: 12,763, level confidence: 57%.
Obaid Safi to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Tom Power.

Obaid Safi won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Obaid Safi played 16% better than Tom Power in this match.

As Obaid Safi has played below his allowed range at 10,879, his level reduction is 6.6% before damping. On the assumption that Obaid Safi would normally have been playing at level 12,232 (based on typical behaviour), Tom Power played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Obaid Safi changes to -3.4% and Tom Power changes to +7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Obaid Safi becomes -1.5% and for Tom Power becomes +2.7%.

Given Obaid Safi's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tom Power's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Obaid Safi is -0.9% and for Tom Power is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Obaid Safi: 75%, Tom Power: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Obaid Safi: 67%, Tom Power: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Power: 8,943, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Obaid Safi: 12,627, level confidence: 67%.