Paul Gandolfo v Roy Milne (Tue 12 Jun 2012)
Match won by Paul Gandolfo. Result: 7-15,15-9,15-7,15-13.
Starting level for
Paul Gandolfo:
1,006, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Roy Milne:
1,084, level confidence: 57%.
Roy Milne to win as he is currently playing
8% better than Paul Gandolfo.
Paul Gandolfo won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Gandolfo played
23% better than Roy Milne in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Gandolfo actually played at a level of
1,157 and Roy Milne at a level of
943. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo changes to +12% and Roy Milne changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo becomes +7.3% and for Roy Milne becomes -8.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Paul Gandolfo is +4.8% and for Roy Milne is -5.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Gandolfo: 83%, Roy Milne: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Gandolfo: 72%, Roy Milne: 65%.
A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Gandolfo:
1,052, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Roy Milne:
1,055, level confidence: 65%.