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Karl Fenwick v Tim Oram (Tue 12 Jun 2012)

Match won by Tim Oram. Result: 9-15,15-17,9-15.

Starting level for Karl Fenwick: 1,383, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Tim Oram: 1,268, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Karl Fenwick to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Tim Oram.

Tim Oram won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Oram played 47% better than Karl Fenwick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Oram actually played at a level of 1,603 and Karl Fenwick at a level of 1,094. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Oram changes to +17% and Karl Fenwick changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Oram becomes +8.8% and for Karl Fenwick becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Tim Oram is +5.7% and for Karl Fenwick is -7.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Karl Fenwick is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Oram: 88%, Karl Fenwick: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Oram: 70%, Karl Fenwick: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Karl Fenwick: 1,305, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Tim Oram: 1,338, level confidence: 70%.