Paul Crowson v Ian Taylor (Tue 12 Jun 2012)
Match won by Paul Crowson. Result: 8-15,15-13,15-9,15-7.
Starting level for
Paul Crowson:
1,463, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Ian Taylor:
1,264, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Paul Crowson to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Ian Taylor.
Paul Crowson won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Crowson played
24% better than Ian Taylor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Crowson actually played at a level of
1,511 and Ian Taylor at a level of
1,224. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Crowson changes to +3.1% and Ian Taylor changes to -2.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Crowson becomes +2.6% and for Ian Taylor becomes -2.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Paul Crowson is +1.7% and for Ian Taylor is -1.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Crowson: 80%, Ian Taylor: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Crowson: 78%, Ian Taylor: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Crowson:
1,485, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Ian Taylor:
1,242, level confidence: 82%.