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Chris Roper v Scott Gregory (Thu 04 Mar 2010)

Match won by Scott Gregory. Result: 8-15,10-15,13-15.

Starting level for Chris Roper: 1,098, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Scott Gregory: 1,478, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Scott Gregory to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Chris Roper.

Scott Gregory won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Gregory played 48% better than Chris Roper in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Gregory actually played at a level of 1,552 and Chris Roper at a level of 1,046. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Gregory changes to +4% and Chris Roper changes to -4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Gregory becomes +3% and for Chris Roper becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Scott Gregory is +2.2% and for Chris Roper is -2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Gregory: 90%, Chris Roper: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Gregory: 85%, Chris Roper: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Roper: 1,068, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Scott Gregory: 1,509, level confidence: 85%.