Adam Long v Keith Farnham (Thu 04 Mar 2010)
Match won by Adam Long. Result: 11-15,15-10,15-9,17-15.
Starting level for
Adam Long:
1,759, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Keith Farnham:
1,599, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Adam Long to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Keith Farnham.
Adam Long won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Long played
23% better than Keith Farnham in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Long actually played at a level of
1,859 and Keith Farnham at a level of
1,513. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Long changes to +5.4% and Keith Farnham changes to -5.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Long becomes +3.3% and for Keith Farnham becomes -3.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Adam Long is +2.5% and for Keith Farnham is -2.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Long: 86%, Keith Farnham: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Long: 81%, Keith Farnham: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adam Long:
1,801, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Keith Farnham:
1,556, level confidence: 82%.