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Martin White v Michael Herd (Tue 12 Jun 2012)

Match won by Martin White. Result: 16-14,15-9,15-6.

Starting level for Martin White: 2,072, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Michael Herd: 1,870, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Martin White to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Michael Herd.

Martin White won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin White played 57% better than Michael Herd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Martin White actually played at a level of 2,470 and Michael Herd at a level of 1,569. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin White changes to +18% and Michael Herd changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin White becomes +7.7% and for Michael Herd becomes -7.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Martin White is +5% and for Michael Herd is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin White: 84%, Michael Herd: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin White: 71%, Michael Herd: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin White: 2,173, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Michael Herd: 1,781, level confidence: 73%.