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Stuart Kousoulou v Peter Newman (Tue 12 Jun 2012)

Match won by Stuart Kousoulou. Result: 12-15,15-10,15-11,15-7.

Starting level for Stuart Kousoulou: 2,128, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Newman: 2,380, level confidence: 68%.
Peter Newman to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Stuart Kousoulou.

Stuart Kousoulou won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Kousoulou played 27% better than Peter Newman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Kousoulou actually played at a level of 2,541 and Peter Newman at a level of 1,993. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Kousoulou changes to +17% and Peter Newman changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Kousoulou becomes +7.4% and for Peter Newman becomes -7.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Stuart Kousoulou is +4.8% and for Peter Newman is -4.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Kousoulou: 85%, Peter Newman: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Kousoulou: 71%, Peter Newman: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Kousoulou: 2,226, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Peter Newman: 2,269, level confidence: 69%.