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Steven Davies v Darren Withey (Thu 04 Mar 2010)

Match won by Steven Davies. Result: 15-5,11-15,15-11,15-9.

Starting level for Steven Davies: 3,439, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Darren Withey: 3,044, level confidence: 68%.
Steven Davies to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Darren Withey.

Steven Davies won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steven Davies played 30% better than Darren Withey in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steven Davies actually played at a level of 3,688 and Darren Withey at a level of 2,838. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steven Davies changes to +6.1% and Darren Withey changes to -6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steven Davies becomes +2.9% and for Darren Withey becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Steven Davies is +2.2% and for Darren Withey is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steven Davies: 87%, Darren Withey: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steven Davies: 81%, Darren Withey: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Steven Davies: 3,509, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Darren Withey: 2,967, level confidence: 77%.