Nick Cartwright v David Wells (Tue 12 Jun 2012)
Match won by David Wells. Result: 13-15,12-15,15-12,11-15.
Starting level for
Nick Cartwright:
1,721, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for
David Wells:
1,809, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
David Wells to win as he is currently playing
5% better than Nick Cartwright.
David Wells won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Wells played
21% better than Nick Cartwright in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Wells actually played at a level of
1,938 and Nick Cartwright at a level of
1,606. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Wells changes to +4.5% and Nick Cartwright changes to -6.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Wells becomes +3% and for Nick Cartwright becomes -4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for David Wells is +1.9% and for Nick Cartwright is -2.6%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Wells: 88%, Nick Cartwright: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Wells: 82%, Nick Cartwright: 66%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nick Cartwright:
1,675, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for David Wells:
1,841, level confidence: 82%.