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Paul Drakes v Steve Hambling (Tue 12 Jun 2012)

Match won by Steve Hambling. Result: 5-15,7-15,3-15.

Starting level for Paul Drakes: 839, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Steve Hambling: 1,603, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Steve Hambling to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Paul Drakes.

Steve Hambling won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Steve Hambling played 200% better than Paul Drakes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Steve Hambling actually played at a level of 2,009 and Paul Drakes at a level of 670. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Steve Hambling changes to +18% and Paul Drakes changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Steve Hambling becomes +8.3% and for Paul Drakes becomes -9.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Steve Hambling is +5.4% and for Paul Drakes is -6.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Drakes is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Steve Hambling: 86%, Paul Drakes: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Steve Hambling: 69%, Paul Drakes: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Drakes: 798, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Steve Hambling: 1,687, level confidence: 69%.