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Jan Brynjolffssen v Duncan Hill (Tue 12 Jun 2012)

Match won by Jan Brynjolffssen. Result: 15-8,9-15,15-13,15-7.

Starting level for Jan Brynjolffssen: 1,690, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Duncan Hill: 1,333, level confidence: 66%.
Jan Brynjolffssen to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Duncan Hill.

Jan Brynjolffssen won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Brynjolffssen played 25% better than Duncan Hill in this match.

In this case, Jan Brynjolffssen played at level 1,669 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Duncan Hill is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Brynjolffssen: 89%, Duncan Hill: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Brynjolffssen: 88%, Duncan Hill: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jan Brynjolffssen: 1,687, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Duncan Hill: 1,331, level confidence: 81%.