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Neil Houson v David Lloyd (Tue 12 Jun 2012)

Match won by Neil Houson. Result: 15-7,15-9,8-15,15-10.

Starting level for Neil Houson: 1,487, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for David Lloyd: 1,120, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Neil Houson to win as he is currently playing 33% better than David Lloyd.

Neil Houson won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Houson played 26% better than David Lloyd in this match.

In this case, Neil Houson played at level 1,432 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Neil Houson would normally have been playing at level 1,449 (based on typical behaviour), David Lloyd played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Houson changes to 0% and David Lloyd changes to +0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Houson becomes 0% and for David Lloyd becomes +0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Neil Houson is 0% and for David Lloyd is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Houson: 76%, David Lloyd: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Houson: 74%, David Lloyd: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Houson: 1,485, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for David Lloyd: 1,123, level confidence: 86%.