Lesley Garner v Carmel Horgan (Mon 08 Mar 2010)
Match won by Lesley Garner. Result: 15-10,15-9,15-13.
Starting level for
Lesley Garner:
328, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for
Carmel Horgan:
231, level confidence: 68%.
Lesley Garner to win as she is currently playing
42% better than Carmel Horgan.
Lesley Garner won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lesley Garner played
45% better than Carmel Horgan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lesley Garner actually played at a level of
332 and Carmel Horgan at a level of
228. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.2% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lesley Garner changes to +1% and Carmel Horgan changes to -1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lesley Garner becomes +1% and for Carmel Horgan becomes -1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Lesley Garner is +0.7% and for Carmel Horgan is -0.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lesley Garner: 83%, Carmel Horgan: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lesley Garner: 82%, Carmel Horgan: 81%.
Final level for Lesley Garner:
330, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Carmel Horgan:
229, level confidence: 81%.