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Howard Hawkins v Pete Burdett (Tue 12 Jun 2012)

Match won by Pete Burdett. Result: 10-15,8-15,16-18.

Starting level for Howard Hawkins: 1,887, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Pete Burdett: 2,469, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Pete Burdett to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Howard Hawkins.

Pete Burdett won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pete Burdett played 46% better than Howard Hawkins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Pete Burdett actually played at a level of 2,606 and Howard Hawkins at a level of 1,788. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.8% and 4.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pete Burdett changes to +3.1% and Howard Hawkins changes to -4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pete Burdett becomes +2.2% and for Howard Hawkins becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Pete Burdett is +1.4% and for Howard Hawkins is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pete Burdett: 85%, Howard Hawkins: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pete Burdett: 81%, Howard Hawkins: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Howard Hawkins: 1,847, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Pete Burdett: 2,500, level confidence: 81%.