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Grant Kleiner v Paul Romagnoli (Wed 13 Jun 2012)

Match won by Paul Romagnoli. Result: 13-15,15-11,8-15,10-15.

Starting level for Grant Kleiner: 1,569, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Romagnoli: 1,456, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Grant Kleiner to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Paul Romagnoli.

Paul Romagnoli won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Romagnoli played 24% better than Grant Kleiner in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Romagnoli actually played at a level of 1,683 and Grant Kleiner at a level of 1,358. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Romagnoli changes to +15% and Grant Kleiner changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Romagnoli becomes +7.5% and for Grant Kleiner becomes -6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Paul Romagnoli is +4.9% and for Grant Kleiner is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Romagnoli: 88%, Grant Kleiner: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Romagnoli: 76%, Grant Kleiner: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Grant Kleiner: 1,504, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Paul Romagnoli: 1,525, level confidence: 76%.