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Shola Bello v Jeff Hobden (Wed 13 Jun 2012)

Match won by Jeff Hobden. Result: 8-15,15-11,15-6,9-15,13-15.

Starting level for Shola Bello: 1,394, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jeff Hobden: 1,773, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Jeff Hobden to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Shola Bello.

Jeff Hobden won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeff Hobden played 8% better than Shola Bello in this match.

As Jeff Hobden has played below his allowed range at 1,600, his level reduction is 5.9% before damping. On the assumption that Jeff Hobden would normally have been playing at level 1,739 (based on typical behaviour), Shola Bello played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.3% and 6.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden changes to -4.9% and Shola Bello changes to +6.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden becomes -3.2% and for Shola Bello becomes +4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Jeff Hobden is -2% and for Shola Bello is +2.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeff Hobden: 92%, Shola Bello: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeff Hobden: 85%, Shola Bello: 82%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shola Bello: 1,429, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Jeff Hobden: 1,735, level confidence: 85%.