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Mark Oppen v Keeley Peacock (Wed 13 Jun 2012)

Match won by Keeley Peacock. Result: 15-10,15-8,13-15,12-15,10-15.

Starting level for Mark Oppen: 1,865, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Keeley Peacock: 1,565, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Mark Oppen to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Keeley Peacock.

Keeley Peacock won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was worse by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keeley Peacock played 7% better than Mark Oppen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keeley Peacock actually played at a level of 1,765 and Mark Oppen at a level of 1,654. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keeley Peacock changes to +10.5% and Mark Oppen changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keeley Peacock becomes +5.6% and for Mark Oppen becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Keeley Peacock is +3.6% and for Mark Oppen is -3.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keeley Peacock: 84%, Mark Oppen: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keeley Peacock: 75%, Mark Oppen: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Oppen: 1,797, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Keeley Peacock: 1,619, level confidence: 75%.