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Gareth Jones v Matt McGill (Wed 13 Jun 2012)

Match won by Matt McGill. Result: 12-15,13-15,6-15.

Starting level for Gareth Jones: 1,061, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Matt McGill: 1,302, level confidence: 63%.
Matt McGill to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Gareth Jones.

Matt McGill won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt McGill played 48% better than Gareth Jones in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt McGill actually played at a level of 1,432 and Gareth Jones at a level of 965. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt McGill changes to +8.1% and Gareth Jones changes to -9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt McGill becomes +4.9% and for Gareth Jones becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Matt McGill is +3.2% and for Gareth Jones is -3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt McGill: 79%, Gareth Jones: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt McGill: 72%, Gareth Jones: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gareth Jones: 1,038, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Matt McGill: 1,342, level confidence: 72%.