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Mike Symmons v Alan Howell (Wed 13 Jun 2012)

Match won by Alan Howell. Result: 14-16,15-10,12-15,16-18.

Starting level for Mike Symmons: 1,354, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alan Howell: 1,433, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Alan Howell to win as he is currently playing 6% better than Mike Symmons.

Alan Howell won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Howell played 18% better than Mike Symmons in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Howell actually played at a level of 1,513 and Mike Symmons at a level of 1,283. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Howell changes to +4.8% and Mike Symmons changes to -5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Howell becomes +3.3% and for Mike Symmons becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Alan Howell is +2.2% and for Mike Symmons is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Howell: 93%, Mike Symmons: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Howell: 88%, Mike Symmons: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Symmons: 1,320, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Alan Howell: 1,462, level confidence: 88%.