Craig Webb v Martin Berry (Thu 14 Jun 2012)
Match won by Craig Webb. Result: 15-6,15-7,15-11.
Starting level for
Craig Webb:
3,498, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for
Martin Berry:
1,919, level confidence: 55%.
Craig Webb to win as he is currently playing
82% better than Martin Berry.
Craig Webb won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Craig Webb played
88% better than Martin Berry in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Craig Webb actually played at a level of
3,548 and Martin Berry at a level of
1,892. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 1.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Craig Webb changes to +1% and Martin Berry changes to -1.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Craig Webb becomes +0.7% and for Martin Berry becomes -0.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Craig Webb is +0.4% and for Martin Berry is -0.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Craig Webb: 75%, Martin Berry: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Craig Webb: 74%, Martin Berry: 73%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Craig Webb:
3,508, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Martin Berry:
1,906, level confidence: 73%.