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Ged McGurk v Alan Tierney (Tue 09 Mar 2010)

Match won by Alan Tierney. Result: 12-15,7-15,6-15.

Starting level for Ged McGurk: 1,336, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Alan Tierney: 1,442, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Alan Tierney to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Ged McGurk.

Alan Tierney won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 80% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Tierney played 80% better than Ged McGurk in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alan Tierney actually played at a level of 1,862 and Ged McGurk at a level of 1,035. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Tierney changes to +25% and Ged McGurk changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Tierney becomes +11.4% and for Ged McGurk becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2009/2010' so the adjustment for Alan Tierney is +8.6% and for Ged McGurk is -9.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ged McGurk is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Tierney: 86%, Ged McGurk: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Tierney: 66%, Ged McGurk: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ged McGurk: 1,270, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Alan Tierney: 1,563, level confidence: 66%.