Fred Cooke v Elliot Selby (Thu 14 Jun 2012)
Match won by Elliot Selby. Result: 15-13,11-15,8-15,12-15.
Starting level for
Fred Cooke:
2,649, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for
Elliot Selby:
3,734, level confidence: 65%.
Elliot Selby to win as he is currently playing
41% better than Fred Cooke.
Elliot Selby won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliot Selby played
25% better than Fred Cooke in this match.
As Elliot Selby has played below his allowed range at 3,372, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Elliot Selby would normally have been playing at level 3,599 (based on typical behaviour), Fred Cooke played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.1%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 3.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliot Selby changes to -1% and Fred Cooke changes to +3.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliot Selby becomes -0.7% and for Fred Cooke becomes +2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Elliot Selby is -0.4% and for Fred Cooke is +1.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliot Selby: 81%, Fred Cooke: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliot Selby: 76%, Fred Cooke: 69%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Fred Cooke:
2,684, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Elliot Selby:
3,712, level confidence: 76%.