SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Simon Evans v Keith Timms (Thu 14 Jun 2012)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 10-15,9-15,13-15.

Starting level for Simon Evans: 2,894, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keith Timms: 5,428, level confidence: 69%.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 88% better than Simon Evans.

Keith Timms won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 45% better than Simon Evans in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Keith Timms was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,201 and 5,428 without affecting his level.

In this case, Keith Timms played at level 4,525 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Keith Timms would normally have been playing at level 4,867 (based on typical behaviour), Simon Evans played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to 0% and Simon Evans changes to +5.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes 0% and for Simon Evans becomes +2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2012' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is 0% and for Simon Evans is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 83%, Simon Evans: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 73%, Simon Evans: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Evans: 2,943, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Keith Timms: 5,420, level confidence: 73%.